Place Manager
THIS SERVICE ONLY SUITS PLACE BETTERS. If
you like to "Place" bet with Betfair and don't know how to set "fair"
place odds, then this is an excellent "Place" backing and laying tool.
It can be used in two ways, either as a guide to placing "fair" "Place" bet odds for your own
selections, or to assist you in finding value in the "Place" market.
What we mean by "fair" is that odds are set at our* calculated "true" odds with a small profit margin (for backing or laying).
This means that you maximise your position over the long period by not taking or giving under-value-odds and also allows you to take your bet or lay by not trying to post over-the-odds (ie your bet is taken). The small margin in the "true" place odds calculated, is pre-set at 10% for Back and Lay and our HRT selections (including
Confidence Ratings) are NOT taken into consideration. THIS INCLUDES THE HRT PLACE ODDS. We suggest that you
incorporate your own filters on the calculations made (ie track ability, distance ability checks, HRT place odds etc, maybe add or take-off a small percentage to change the margin), however, the service
is still effective on its own. The odds shown are purely
fractional and do not take into consideration the factions Betfair uses.
For example, odds of $35.55 may need to be rounded up to $36.00.
* We use our own formula.
Example
The
following table shows Place Manager in operation only a minute before jump time. Note that there are two additional fields displayed (in red),
"PBack" and "PLay", standing for "Place Back" and
"Place Lay". You will also see that the fields are slightly lighter
in colour than the traditional Betfair colours of blue and pink (refer last two columns
which are in similar darker colours).
If you wanted to back "Holy Moses" for the place, then Place Manager is
suggesting odds of $1.95. It is currently $1.92, slightly under. Remember there
is a 10% margin here, so the odds could be acceptable. Whatever the case,
it gives you a guideline on whether to take the odds right away, wait for our "true" odds with a small margin, or wait for even a higher price (higher margin). If you wanted to lay this horse, it is showing you that the lay price of
$2.14 is way under value (Place Manager recommends $1.79 at its calculated price
and a 10% margin). This lay respesents a poorer position of -44%.
Your system does not need to be form related to use this tool. You could for example follow each favourite and only back or lay it when appropriate. Maybe you have a favourite jockey, place your bets when you know the odds are favourable - getting the idea?
The other way the service may be used is by finding value. As you can see in the
example, "Cristi's Idol" is our top HRT rater and is $1.74 the place.
Place Manager suggests that the odds should be $1.48 the place, this can be seen by Place Manager darkening the background colour of the field. This represents an excellent place bet overlay ( at +54%). In fact
this horse actually ran second. Even though the TAB place odds were $1.70, Place
Manager showed it as a good overlay, using just the TAB price could make one think it was not value (not considering our rating).
Also there is a lay recommendation in the example (refer to the darker pink background field), "Speedy Viper" at
$26.93, making the $25.00 a fair lay (it is under our recommended price). We recommend that you nudge up from the Back Price rather than go
straight in and take the price on request (e.g. start with $13.00 and move up to the "true" calculated ceiling odds recommended. From experience though, we do not recommend laying horses higher than $10 the place.
Please
note that these prices are dynamic and could change on every refresh. Also we
recommend that you use the service close to jump time (do not use early in the market ie Lay market lower than 95% and Back market higher than 110%) and be quick, a lot of
other people are looking for value too!
One last bit of advice, you'll probably find IASbet place odds pay better than
Betfair a lot of the time and there is no commission to pay. It is worth keeping
a check on the IASbet place odds near jump time and if they are much better,
maybe taking the risk that they'll stay that way (especially in large pool races
on the weekend). For the record, "Cristi's Idol" paid $1.84 on IASbet
whereas on Betfair $1.70 after the 5% commission is taken out. But whatever the
case, a great overlay was indicated.
It is worthwhile checking a few of the HRT fields before backing. Horses that
are too heavy, never raced at the track or distance may not be worth the bet or
conversely may be worth the lay.
We personally use this service and think you'll find it as a great "Place" betting tool. It may read complex, but it is pretty simple to use.
As with any automated system there can be
anomalies. Favourites with wide barriers, poor apprentice jockeys, dramatic
change in distance etc may come up as a good overlay, but may not necessarily be
true value - use your judgment. Also some horses may come up as value because
there is a very short Favourite in the race. This can skew the calculations. In
general, these situations are not that frequent. If you decide to use
this system, it needs to be at your own risk with the understanding that you may
lose. We do not accept any responsibility for losses.
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This service will:- maintain your discipline, decrease your errors, highlight all place Back/Lay opportunities per race, reduce your concentration and increase your execution time.
Quality form guide information
and tips
for horse racing in Australia
(and occasional New Zealand racing)
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